Inventory Optimization Pro Back to Find the cash Book a free 30 minutes

The business

Cedar Point Supply, a distributor of pipe, valves, fasteners and electrical supplies to trade customers. About $11M in sales, about $1.7M of inventory, 11 active customers on 30 and 45 day terms, 2 bank accounts, a $750,000 credit line and a minimum cash policy of $250,000.

What was going wrong

The 13-week cash flow lived in a spreadsheet that one person rebuilt every week. Open invoices were spread by payment terms, purchases were planned at 75% of sales whatever was on the shelf, and each week's file replaced the last. It said cash was fine. Nobody could say whether it had ever been right.

13-week cash flowWorking capitalCredit line

The question it answers

When does cash run short, and which decision fixes it?

4 weeks that happened and 13 weeks ahead on one screen: every open invoice, bill, purchase order and fixed payment on the week its cash moves, reconciled to the bank and checked before anyone sees it.

1Where it goes wrong

Left alone, week 13 closes at $220,530, $29,470 under the minimum. Found by placing 162 open invoices, bills, purchase orders and fixed payments one by one on the week the cash moves.

2How to fix it

2 approved actions still leave week 13 $8,570 short. Then purchases are set from what is on the shelf and on order: 9.6 weeks of stock against a target of 8.

3The result

The lowest week becomes $300,810, above the minimum, and week 13 closes at $506,330. No new borrowing.

It reconciles before it forecasts

The bank ties to the statements to the cent. Receivables and payables are rolled forward against the aging. The one difference, $1,240, is named: a customer paid short.

Every bank line has a category, and a person decides the new ones

26 bank lines last week. 23 matched a rule, 3 were new and went to a person. Borrowed money is never counted as a sale.

Last week is kept, and measured

Each closed week is locked, and the next one is compared with it. Last week's forecast was 90.1% accurate, with a reason for every difference.

Inventory is inside the forecast

The purchase plan comes from the monthly closing, not from a percentage of sales. That is the line that moved the answer.

13-week cash flow

Closing cash, week by week

4 weeks that happened, 13 weeks ahead

The cash table

Click a forecast week to see every line behind it

Approved actions

    Checks

    A FLAG is never hidden and never sent as it stands. Each one carries the decision a person made about it.

    Reconcile

    Does last week tie out?

    Variance

    Tie-out

    Nothing drops out quietly

    Every open invoice and bill is in one of the 13 weeks, beyond week 13, or excluded with a reason. Past due items are placed, never lost.

    From the monthly closing

    What the inventory is doing to the cash

    The mapping

    How a bank line gets its category, and who decides

    Last week had 26 bank lines. 23 matched a rule this company already had. 3 were new. For each new one a category is suggested with the reason, a person says yes or no, and the answer is saved as a rule, so the same line is never asked about twice.

    Bank lineAmountSuggestedPerson saidSaved asWhy
    AMEX EPAYMENT ACH PMT-$8,940Rent and overheadYesRent and overheadCompany card: the card bill is the cash event.
    ZELLE TO J MORALES-$3,200PayrollNoRent and overheadContract forklift mechanic, invoice on file. Not payroll.
    WIRE IN REF 88213 SEABRIGHT CASUALTY$14,750Other receiptsYesOther receiptsInsurance claim payout, one-off.

    One line, the wrong guess

    A payment to a person looks like wages. It was a contractor with an invoice on file. A rule that only reads the text gets this wrong every week. A person answers it once.

    Borrowed money is not a sale

    A draw on the credit line arrives in the bank like a customer payment. It is kept in its own lines, below operations, so a week that was rescued by borrowing never reads as a good week.

    Own account to own account

    The transfer that funds payroll leaves one account and lands in another. Both sides are excluded, or the same cash is counted twice.

    The usual way

    Why the weekly spreadsheet could not show this

    Nothing here is beyond a spreadsheet in principle. It is beyond one person, every week, by hand.

    It spreads totals. Cash moves one invoice at a time

    The usual model takes receivables in total and spreads them by payment terms. Here 162 open invoices, bills, purchase orders and fixed payments are each placed on the week their cash moves, with each customer's own habit of paying late. That is 200 lines behind the 13 weeks, rebuilt every week.

    It loses what does not fit a column

    Formulas that match a due date to a week quietly drop anything already past due or beyond week 13. Past due invoices are the most collectable cash in the business. Here every open item is in a week, beyond week 13, or excluded with a reason, and the page proves it adds back to the aging: $1,525,830 of receivables, $20,900 excluded, nothing unplaced.

    It forgets last week

    The file is saved over, so last week's forecast is gone and nobody learns whether it was right. Here each week is locked when it closes and the next one is measured against it: last week was 90.1% accurate, with a reason for every difference.

    It does not know what is on the shelf

    Purchases were planned at 75% of sales, whatever the stock. The month-end count says 9.6 weeks on hand against a target of 8, with another $600,800 already on order. Until the forecast reads that, the largest payment the company chooses to make is the one line nobody is managing.

    Why it took AI

    AI reads and asks. It is not allowed to do the arithmetic

    Give a chatbot 8 files and ask for a cash forecast, and it returns a confident table that does not tie to the bank and changes when the question is asked again. This is built the other way round.

    What AI does here

    Reads the words the bank prints and suggests a category for a line no rule has seen, with the reason.

    Learns each customer's habit from their own paid invoices, so a collection date is their history, not their terms.

    Notices what a formula would not. New sales were forecast as half after 6 weeks and half after 7. The recent invoices showed 30% after 5 weeks, 30% after 6 weeks, 15% after 7 weeks, with slower customers after that. Left alone, the forecast showed a shortfall in week 7 that was never going to happen.

    Asks the 6 questions that need a person, one at a time, and writes each answer down where next week will find it.

    What AI does not do

    The arithmetic. Fixed code places every line and adds every week, the same way each run. A number cannot change because it was asked for differently.

    The checks. 15 of them run before anyone sees the page. This week 11 passed and 4 were flagged, each shown with the decision a person made.

    The decisions. A new category, a difference, a changed assumption, which action is real, and anything that is sent. Those stay with the person who signs.

    What it means

    The cash was on the shelf, not at the bank

    Left alone

    $220,530

    Week 13 closes $29,470 under the $250,000 minimum. The usual answer is to draw on the credit line and pay interest on it.

    The 2 obvious actions

    $241,430

    Splitting an import payment and a payment plan for an overdue customer help the middle weeks. Week 13 is still $8,570 short.

    Buying to the stock target

    $506,330

    Week 13, $264,900 higher than with the actions alone, and no week under the minimum. $292,839 was sitting in stock above the 8-week target. Purchases still to be decided go from about $189,700 a week to $159,700, and stock ends week 13 on the target. No new borrowing.

    This is the question a lender asks next. The bank lends against inventory that moves: $212,100 of this stock has not moved in 90 days and is left out of what can be borrowed against.

    Sources

    Where each number came from

    Last week's bank lines, mapped